# Source code for modulus.metrics.general.crps

```
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# SPDX-License-Identifier: Apache-2.0
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.
from typing import Union
import numpy as np
import torch
from .histogram import cdf as cdf_function
Tensor = torch.Tensor
@torch.jit.script
def kcrps(pred: Tensor, obs: Tensor, dim: int = 0):
"""
Computes the local Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) by using
the kernel version of CRPS
Creates a map of CRPS and does not accumulate over lat/lon regions.
Computes:
CRPS(X, y) = E[X - y] - 0.5 E[X-X']
Parameters
----------
pred : Tensor
Tensor containing the ensemble predictions. The ensemble dimension
is assumed to be the leading dimension unless 'dim' is specified.
obs : Union[Tensor, np.ndarray]
Tensor or array containing an observation over which the CRPS is computed
with respect to.
dim : int, optional
The dimension over which to compute the CRPS, assumed to be 0.
Returns
-------
Tensor
Map of CRPS
"""
pred = pred.unsqueeze(0).transpose(0, dim + 1).squeeze(dim + 1)
n = pred.shape[0]
_crps = 0.0 * obs
for i in range(n):
x_i = pred[i]
x_j = pred[i:]
_crps += torch.abs(x_i - obs) / n
_crps -= torch.sum(torch.abs(x_i[None] - x_j) / n, dim=0) / n
return _crps
def _crps_gaussian(mean: Tensor, std: Tensor, obs: Union[Tensor, np.ndarray]) -> Tensor:
"""
Computes the local Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)
using assuming that the forecast distribution is normal.
Creates a map of CRPS and does not accumulate over lat/lon regions.
Computes:
.. math::
CRPS(mean, std, y) = std * [ \\frac{1}{\\sqrt{\\pi}}} - 2 \\phi ( \\frac{x-mean}{std} ) -
( \\frac{x-mean}{std} ) * (2 \\Phi(\\frac{x-mean}{std}) - 1) ]
where \\phi and \\Phi are the normal gaussian pdf/cdf respectively.
Parameters
----------
mean : Tensor
Tensor of mean of forecast distribution.
std : Tensor
Tensor of standard deviation of forecast distribution.
obs : Union[Tensor, np.ndarray]
Tensor or array containing an observation over which the CRPS is computed
with respect to. Broadcasting dimensions must be compatible with the non-zeroth
dimensions of bins and cdf.
Returns
-------
Tensor
Map of CRPS
"""
if isinstance(obs, np.ndarray):
obs = torch.from_numpy(obs).to(mean.device)
# Check shape compatibility
if mean.shape != std.shape:
raise ValueError(
"Mean and standard deviation must have"
+ "compatible shapes but found"
+ str(mean.shape)
+ " and "
+ str(std.shape)
+ "."
)
if mean.shape != obs.shape:
raise ValueError(
"Mean and obs must have"
+ "compatible shapes but found"
+ str(mean.shape)
+ " and "
+ str(obs.shape)
+ "."
)
d = (obs - mean) / std
phi = torch.exp(-0.5 * d**2) / torch.sqrt(torch.as_tensor(2 * torch.pi))
# Note, simplified expression below is not exactly Gaussian CDF
Phi = torch.erf(d / torch.sqrt(torch.as_tensor(2.0)))
return std * (2 * phi + d * Phi - 1.0 / torch.sqrt(torch.as_tensor(torch.pi)))
def _crps_from_cdf(
bin_edges: Tensor, cdf: Tensor, obs: Union[Tensor, np.ndarray]
) -> Tensor:
"""Computes the local Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)
using a cumulative distribution function.
Creates a map of CRPS and does not accumulate over lat/lon regions.
Computes:
.. math::
CRPS(X, y) = int[ (F(x) - 1[x - y])^2 ] dx
where F is the empirical cdf of X.
Parameters
----------
bins_edges : Tensor
Tensor [N+1, ...] containing bin edges. The leading dimension must represent the
N+1 bin edges.
cdf : Tensor
Tensor [N, ...] containing a cdf, defined over bins. The non-zeroth dimensions
of bins and cdf must be compatible.
obs : Union[Tensor, np.ndarray]
Tensor or array containing an observation over which the CRPS is computed
with respect to. Broadcasting dimensions must be compatible with the non-zeroth
dimensions of bins and cdf.
Returns
-------
Tensor
Map of CRPS
"""
if isinstance(obs, np.ndarray):
obs = torch.from_numpy(obs).to(cdf.device)
if bin_edges.shape[1:] != cdf.shape[1:]:
raise ValueError(
"Expected bins and cdf to have compatible non-zeroth dimensions but have shapes"
+ str(bin_edges.shape[1:])
+ " and "
+ str(cdf.shape[1:])
+ "."
)
if bin_edges.shape[1:] != obs.shape:
raise ValueError(
"Expected bins and observations to have compatible broadcasting dimensions but have shapes"
+ str(bin_edges.shape[1:])
+ " and "
+ str(obs.shape)
+ "."
)
if bin_edges.shape[0] != cdf.shape[0] + 1:
raise ValueError(
"Expected zeroth dimension of cdf to be equal to the zeroth dimension of bins + 1 but have shapes"
+ str(bin_edges.shape[0])
+ " and "
+ str(cdf.shape[0])
+ "+1."
)
dbins = bin_edges[1, ...] - bin_edges[0, ...]
bin_mids = 0.5 * (bin_edges[1:] + bin_edges[:-1])
obs = torch.ge(bin_mids, obs).int()
return torch.sum(torch.abs(cdf - obs) ** 2 * dbins, dim=0)
def _crps_from_counts(
bin_edges: Tensor, counts: Tensor, obs: Union[Tensor, np.ndarray]
) -> Tensor:
"""Computes the local Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)
using a histogram of counts.
Creates a map of CRPS and does not accumulate over lat/lon regions.
Computes:
.. math::
CRPS(X, y) = int[ (F(x) - 1[x - y])^2 ] dx
where F is the empirical cdf of X.
Parameters
----------
bins_edges : Tensor
Tensor [N+1, ...] containing bin edges. The leading dimension must represent the
N+1 bin edges.
counts : Tensor
Tensor [N, ...] containing counts, defined over bins. The non-zeroth dimensions
of bins and counts must be compatible.
obs : Union[Tensor, np.ndarray]
Tensor or array containing an observation over which the CRPS is computed
with respect to. Broadcasting dimensions must be compatible with the non-zeroth
dimensions of bins and counts.
Returns
-------
Tensor
Map of CRPS
"""
if isinstance(obs, np.ndarray):
obs = torch.from_numpy(obs).to(counts.device)
if bin_edges.shape[1:] != counts.shape[1:]:
raise ValueError(
"Expected bins and cdf to have compatible non-zeroth dimensions but have shapes"
+ str(bin_edges.shape[1:])
+ " and "
+ str(counts.shape[1:])
+ "."
)
if bin_edges.shape[1:] != obs.shape:
raise ValueError(
"Expected bins and observations to have compatible broadcasting dimensions but have shapes"
+ str(bin_edges.shape[1:])
+ " and "
+ str(obs.shape)
+ "."
)
if bin_edges.shape[0] != counts.shape[0] + 1:
raise ValueError(
"Expected zeroth dimension of cdf to be equal to the zeroth dimension of bins + 1 but have shapes"
+ str(bin_edges.shape[0])
+ " and "
+ str(counts.shape[0])
+ "+1."
)
cdf_hat = torch.cumsum(counts / torch.sum(counts, dim=0), dim=0)
return _crps_from_cdf(bin_edges, cdf_hat, obs)
[docs]def crps(
pred: Tensor, obs: Union[Tensor, np.ndarray], dim: int = 0, method: str = "kernel"
) -> Tensor:
"""
Computes the local Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) by either
computing a histogram and CDF of the predictions, or using the kernel definition.
Creates a map of CRPS and does not accumulate over lat/lon regions.
Computes:
.. math::
CRPS(x, y) = E[X-y] - 0.5*E[X-X'] if B < 100
CRPS(X, y) = int[ (F(x) - 1[x - y])^2 ] dx otherwise
where F is the empirical cdf of X.
Parameters
----------
pred : Tensor
Tensor containing the ensemble predictions.
obs : Union[Tensor, np.ndarray]
Tensor or array containing an observation over which the CRPS is computed
with respect to.
dim : int, Optional
Dimension with which to calculate the CRPS over, the ensemble dimension.
Assumed to be zero.
method: str, Optional
The method to calculate the crps. Can either be "kernel" or "histogram".
Returns
-------
Tensor
Map of CRPS
"""
if method not in ["kernel", "histogram"]:
raise ValueError("Method must either be 'kernel' or 'histogram'.")
n = pred.shape[dim]
pred = pred.unsqueeze(0).transpose(0, dim + 1).squeeze(dim + 1)
obs = torch.as_tensor(obs, device=pred.device, dtype=pred.dtype)
if method == "kernel":
return kcrps(pred, obs, dim=0)
else:
number_of_bins = max(int(np.sqrt(n)), 100)
bin_edges, cdf = cdf_function(pred, bins=number_of_bins)
_crps = _crps_from_cdf(bin_edges, cdf, obs)
return _crps
```